3 Recent Developments in the U.S. Almond Market

In our previous report on trends in the United States almond market, published in November of 2022, we discussed the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as California water security on almond supply and pricing.

Specifically, despite ongoing high demand, U.S. almond prices were temporarily depressed due to oversupply resulting from a reduction in exports during the Covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, water scarcity in many California almond regions and the potential implementation of water use restrictions by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) indicated likely reductions in almond acreage and thus almond supply.

We advanced the thesis that these acreage reductions, coupled with growing global demand, naturally cyclical market movements, and pandemic recovery, would put upward pressure on land values in more water-secure areas.

Now, nearly six months later, we’re seeing this thesis play out in a few ways:

1. We have seen meaningful improvements in shipments of almonds versus 2021. The months of January, February and March were record highs, totalling 756 million lbs. (Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report, March 13, 2023)

Past performance does not guarantee future results and there is no guarantee this trend will continue. “2021-2022” = 2022 shipments of the 2021 almond crop. “2022-2023” = 2023 shipments of the 2022 almond crop. Source: Almond Board of California

2. Pricing has firmed up due to record shipments along with uncertainty over the 2023 crop health following poor conditions for bees, which help pollinate trees. (“Almond prices rebound from 20-year low to hit 11-month high,” Mintec Global, March 17, 2023)

Past performance does not guarantee future results and there is no guarantee this trend will continue. Source: Mintec

Past performance does not guarantee future results and there is no guarantee this trend will continue. Source: Liz Lindquisteer, Stratamarkets

3. We continue to see removals of almond acreage in California, much of which is due to water stress. 2022 final removals were 60,421 acres. (2022 Standing Acreage - Final Estimate, Almond Board of California, November 15, 2022)

Overall, the firming up of pricing, record shipments, and continued acreage removals paint a positive pricing picture and continue to reaffirm our belief in the U.S. almond industry as the world’s leading supplier of almonds. Our investment thesis holds in light of these recent developments.

Take a look at our previous analysis of U.S. almond trends, including an in-depth discussion of SGMA’s impact on California almond acreage.

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